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Trump Uses Unlawful Demand As Pretext For War On Iran

We have one very, very clear red line, and that is enrichment. We cannot allow even 1% of an enrichment capability,” Steve Witkoff, U.S. Special Envoy, ABC’s “This Week”

“Demanding zero uranium enrichment means NO DEAL”, Sayed Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Foreign Minister

You could have spotted this from a mile away.

President Trump—who sabotaged the most stringent and comprehensive nuclear agreement in history (The JCPOA)—ordered his special envoy to make a surprise announcement that crosses all of Iran’s “red lines” and makes war between the US and Iran inevitable. Anyone with half a brain could see that this was the strategy from the very beginning. Just as Washington encouraged Kiev to intensify its bombardment of the Donbas forcing Putin to send Russian forces into Ukraine, so too, Washington lured Tehran into nuclear “talks” with the clear intention of creating a pretext for launching a war on Iran. In both cases, US war-planners ‘moved heaven and earth’ to make it look like the opposite party provoked the conflict when, in fact, Washington was the primary instigator. Let me explain:

On Sunday, US special envoy Steve Witkoff said the following on ABC’s “This Week”:

“We have one very, very clear red line, and that is enrichment. We cannot allow even 1% of an enrichment capability.”

Full Stop. Witkoff’s comments require thorough and unbiased analysis, mainly because they are designed with one purpose in mind: To sabotage the nuclear talks. There’s no other explanation. The Trump administration and anyone who has followed this issue over the last decade and a half knows that Iran’s biggest and brightest red line is enrichment. In the four meetings that have been conducted in Oman since April, US negotiators were told explicitly that nuclear enrichment was “non-negotiable” and ‘off the table’. In other words, they agreed that the issue would not be discussed or even brought up. (Non-negotiable means non-negotiable.) So, we must assume that the reason Witkoff decided to make this unexpected announcement was either because he wanted to torpedo the negotiations or because he doesn’t understand plain English. Which is it?

We think Witkoff understands plain English, in fact, we’re sure of it. So, what was his motive; why did he decide to deliver this bombshell on national TV to an American audience instead of Iranian negotiators who would have challenged him on the issue? Why?

There can only be one reason; he wants to sabotage the talks. He wants to force the Iranians to terminate the meetings so it appears that they do not sincerely seek peace. That is how Trump and Co. intend to turn-the-tables and make it look like Iran is the “bad guy.” More importantly, any suspension of the talks by Iran will be used as a justification for US-Israeli air strikes on targets in Iran. Trump has already threatened that—if the talks broke down—he would unleash holy hell on Iran. Witkoff has now laid the groundwork for those attacks.

Other analysts are starting to figure out what is going on behind the smokescreen of the nuclear talks. Here’s how Michael Tracey summed it up:

If anyone suspected that the purpose of this “negotiating” exercise was to set up an impossible endpoint (humiliating Iranian capitulation) and then when Iran balks, use that as a pretext to bomb Iran (“We tried to negotiate first!”) there is growing evidence for your suspicions

He’s right, isn’t he? The talks were a “set up” that was concocted to create a justification for war. It’s clear as day. Much of the public’s confusion on this matter is attributable to Witkoff himself, who seems like an affable and credible fellow, whose position on nuclear enrichment is identical to rabid ‘foam-at-the-mouth’ warmongers like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo. Think about that for a minute; Witkoff’s position is the same as Bolton’s and Pompeo’s. There’s no difference.

So, why is nuclear enrichment such a big deal that Iran won’t even discuss it?

Because Iranians have great pride and they will not allow themselves to be treated like second-class citizens by the likes of the US and Israel. That’s why.

Look: Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment is not a privilege granted by executive fiat or presidential edict. It’s a fundamental right that is enshrined in international law under the terms of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. President Donald Trump does not have the authority to forbid Iran from engaging in activities that are not only perfectly legal under NPT statutes but also affirmed under the treaty’s “inalienable right” clause. Inquisitive people might want to read the section of the treaty itself to corroborate what we are saying here:

NPT Article IV and the Right to Nuclear Technology

Article IV Text (on the Right to Nuclear Technology):

Paragraph 1: “Nothing in this Treaty shall be interpreted as affecting the inalienable right of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination and in conformity with Articles I and II of this Treaty.”

Paragraph 2: E ncourages cooperation in sharing nuclear technology for peaceful uses, particularly for developing countries.

What part of the above statement is ambiguous?

There is nothing ambiguous about this statement. Iran clearly has “the inalienable right… to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination.” That means that neither Trump nor anyone else can selectively order Iran to stop doing what is clearly permitted under an internationally recognized treaty.

And we should also pay special attention to the language that is used in the passage. The treaty does not simply refer to the “rights” of the participating parties; they refer to “inalienable right” which means that nuclear enrichment is a “fundamental, natural right that cannot be taken away or surrendered, either by a government or individual.”

The wording was formulated to avoid the situation we have today in which an impulsive and domineering despot arbitrarily repeals the laws (and rights) that don’t align with his own dubious political objectives. By refusing to comply with Trump’s executive edict, Iran is basically defending the global system upon which international law rests. It is a rejection of Trump’s iron-fisted unilateralism. We should all be grateful for Iran’s gutsy perseverance.

By the way, just to underscore Witkoff’s hypocrisy on this matter, here is a short video on Fox News of Witkoff stating unequivocally that Iran would be permitted to enrich at 3.67% which is a position he now rejects. The interview was conducted in April, a month before he banned all enrichment activities.

 

When President Donald Trump imposed his sweeping tariffs on April 2, he had two main objectives:

  1. Reduce the trade deficits
  2. Bring jobs and manufacturing back to the United States

These were the stated goals but, as we soon found out, the real aim was to weaken China by preventing them from selling goods to US consumers. The Trump administration also used the tariffs to isolate China by providing incentives to the nations that agreed to reduce their trade with Beijing. In short, the tariffs were the main weapon in a trade war on a peer competitor who has overtaken the US in nearly every area of industrial and technological production.

Fortunately, Trump’s plan failed, and he was forced to ease the tariffs without achieving any of his main objectives. The reason we say “fortunately” is because the tariffs policy never served the interests of the American people. Quite the contrary, Americans are hurt by unilateral policies that ignore the rules of international trade and needlessly disrupt supply chains. All that does is push prices higher, reduce employment and slow growth. Besides, manipulating tariffs with the intention of destroying a rival violates a number of widely accepted WTO rules that protect the interests of everyone.

In contrast to the US, China acted in a way that was consistent with their broader social philosophy which is rooted in their unique interpretation of socialism. They took the moral high ground, acted on principle, and refused to give in to Trump’s coercion. They only initiated countermeasures in response to Trump’s tariffs blitz that completely ignored the rules articulated in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) which stipulates that countries cannot arbitrarily exceed “bound rates” or selectively target one country with 145% tariffs. (which is the equivalent of an embargo.) By acting alone, Trump basically showed his contempt for the international system and for any legal constraints on his own power. This is from the Global Times:

The multilateral trading system with the WTO at its core is the cornerstone of international trade and plays an important role in global economic governance. All parties should resolve differences and disputes through equal-footed dialogue under the framework of the WTO, jointly uphold multilateralism and free trade, and promote the stability and smooth functioning of global industrial and supply chains. Global Times

In other words, Trump’s loss was a victory for the system of international trade. But it was also a victory for China because China ‘stuck to its guns’ and refused to bow to Washington’s bullying. Here’s more from Bloomberg:

Xi Jinping’s decision to stand his ground against Donald Trump could hardly have gone any better for the Chinese leader.

After two days of high-stakes talks in Switzerland, trade negotiators from the world’s biggest economies announced Monday a massive de-escalation in tariffs. In a carefully coordinated joint statement, the US slashed duties on Chinese products to 30% from 145% for a 90-day period, while Beijing dropped its levy on most goods to 10%.

The dramatic reduction exceeded expectations in China, and sent the dollar and stocks soaring — providing some much-needed market relief for Trump, who is facing pressure as inflation looks set to speed up at home. Chinese equities also surged. The deal ended up meeting nearly all of Beijing’s core demands. The elevated “reciprocal” tariff for China, which Trump set at 34% on April 2, has been suspended — leaving America’s top rival with the same 10% rate that applies to the UK, a longtime ally….

“This is arguably the best outcome that China could have hoped for — the US backed down,” said Trey McArver, co-founder of research firm Trivium China. “Going forward, this will make the Chinese side confident that they have leverage over the US in any negotiations.” , Swiss Info

Repeat: This is the best outcome that China could have hoped for — the US backed down”

US policy towards China is not only deeply immoral; it’s also counterproductive. Anyone who followed recent events in the foreign press, understands that the United States hurt itself very badly by its bullyboy tactics. What people outside the United States saw was an aging and enfeebled prize fighter enter the ring with a ferocious young contender who knocked him out in the first Round. In less than 6 weeks, Trump removed the bulk of the tariffs leaving just 30% in order to save face with his backers. In exchange, he got nothing from China at all. Beijing made no concessions other than allowing Trump to increase the tariff on Chinese imports from 20 to 30%, which means that the blue-collar men and women—who are Trump’s most ardent supporters—will pay an additional 10% at their favorite department store. So, while Trump promises massive new tax cuts for the uber-wealthy, working people just saw their taxes hiked by a whopping 10%. Here’s more from the Guardian:

Donald Trump will inevitably claim Monday’s temporary truce in the US-China trade war as a victory, but financial markets seem to have read it for what it is – a capitulation….

In other words, the president has caved. He may have been swayed by market wobbles but it seems more plausible that dire warnings from retailers about empty shelves – backed up by data showing shipments into US ports collapsing – may have strengthened the hands of trade moderates in the administration.

Confronted with warnings of a shortage of toys, Trump told reporters that children should be happy with “two dolls instead of 30 dolls”, and they might “cost a couple bucks more” than usual. But it is difficult to imagine even this most bullish of presidents withstanding the attacks that would come his way if he began to be seen as responsible for Covid-style shortages of key goods in the world’s largest economy.

Instead, the White House seems to have opted for tactical retreat. The China-US conflict was always the hottest theatre of confrontation in Trump’s trade war, with a longer history and deeper public support than his quixotic attacks on Mexico and Canada.

If Trump is indeed ready to give in even with Beijing, it sends a signal that some of the other aggressive aspects of his trade policy may be negotiable. Trump might claim China tariff victory – but this is Capitulation Day, Guardian

As far as Trump’s stated goals, (to reduce the trade deficits and bring jobs and manufacturing back to the US) the president failed on both counts. But in respect to his unstated goals, (weakening and isolating China) he also failed. And the reason he failed is due to three things:

  1. China was able to maintain global trade flows through diversification (They found other buyers for US-bound exports)
  2. China responded to the need for fiscal stimulus and government intervention quickly (which maintained their growth targets)
  3. China was able to inflict serious pain on the US by withholding its exports which left ports on the West Coast in deep distress.

 

Donald Trump rolled the dice and came up snakes-eyes. He thought he could bully China, but China called his bluff. Now he must report his failure to the American people by trying to make the biggest trade blunder in the nation’s history, look like a ‘stunning triumph of the will’. Good luck with that.

Fortunately, we have a reliable metric for determining whether Trump succeeded or failed. If China makes concessions to preserve trade with the US, then we can say that Trump ‘won’. But if Trump is forced to remove his tariffs before China agrees to resume trade, then Trump ‘lost’. So, it’s really just a matter of who blinks first.

We figure that Trump will ‘blink first’ based on the fact, that Trump ‘has no cards to play.’ China has him over a barrel and they know it. Many analysts knew this from the very beginning, but their views were drowned out by the army of anti-China scribes and pundits who think the mighty USA can crush China whenever it wants. Now they’re going to see that the world doesn’t work that way. Now they’re going to see that a poorly governed country that is $36 trillion in debt and sliding towards irreversible insolvency, doesn’t get to make the rules. This is from a piece at CNN (on Sunday):

Top US officials involved in high-level trade negotiations with China emerged from two days of talks touting “substantial progress” and appearing to confirm that a deal between the two countries had been reached, which could have massive implications for the global economy.

“I’m happy to report that we’ve made substantial progress between the United States and China in the very important trade talks,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a brief statement Sunday in Geneva, Switzerland, where the talks were held, calling the negotiations “productive.”

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that an agreement had been reached Sunday, after President Donald Trump imposed sweeping 145% tariffs on most Chinese goods last month.

“The president declared a national emergency and imposed tariffs, and we’re confident that the deal we struck with our Chinese partners will help us to resolve work toward resolving that national emergency,” Greer said.

He added, “It’s important to understand how quickly we were able to come to agreement, which reflects that perhaps the differences were not so large as maybe thought.” CNN

“GREAT PROGRESS”, he says. That either means that China has accepted Trump’s unilateral tariffs or they have made important concessions. So, which is it?

We’ll know on Monday.

All we know so far, is that both sides agreed to establish a US-China trade consultation mechanism.

What does that mean?

It means the US and China agreed to a particular framework for ongoing dialogue between the two countries on issues related to trade, tariffs, export controls, and access to markets. In other words, they agreed to pick up the phone when officials from the other country call.

Don’t they do that anyway?

Yes, they do, which means the terminology was created to divert attention from the fact that China has offered no concessions and is refusing to budge until the tariffs are lifted. All of this is very bad for Trump who wants to convince his base that “tough talk” and bullyboy tactics can force rivals to bend to Uncle Sam’s will. But that clearly has not happened. This is from an article at the Global Times on Sunday:

Global attention is focused on Geneva, Switzerland, where China, US high-level economic and trade meeting has been held over the weekend….

In response to questions about the US abuse of tariffs, Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Miao Deyu on Sunday stated at a media briefing… that the US uses tariffs as a weapon to exert maximum pressure and seek self-interest, embodying typical unilateralism, protectionism, and economic bullying. This approach sacrifices the legitimate interests of countries worldwide to serve US hegemonic interests. China firmly opposes the US imposition of so-called “reciprocal tariffs” and has taken forceful legal measures to resolutely counter them, CCTV News reported on Sunday.

China will firmly safeguard its development interests, uphold international fairness and justice, and maintain the international trade order. We are willing to strengthen communication and coordination with Latin American countries to jointly uphold multilateralism and the multilateral trading system, Miao said….

China’s decision to engage in talks with the US was made after careful consideration of global expectations, China’s own interests, and the concerns of US businesses and consumers, and it reflects China’s openness and sense of responsibility as a major global power…

If the US continues to cling to “America First” and unilateralism, seeks concessions from China through pressure tactics, any dialogue is unlikely to achieve meaningful progress, Ying noted….

T he world’s largest economy had already contracted in the first quarter – marking the first decline since 2022. The tariffs have only added to the strain, dealing a heavy blow to the US economy by exerting mounting pressure across key areas such as consumer spending, employment, investment and trade… In comparison, China has the resilience and the necessary policy tools to protect its legitimate interests. The country has maintained its position as the world’s largest goods trading nation for eight consecutive years and it is a major trading partner for over 150 countries and regions….

China’s trade continued to expand at a solid pace in April. The country’s total import and export value in April reached 3.84 trillion yuan ($531.46 billion), up 5.6 percent year-on-year. Exports stood at 2.27 trillion yuan, rising 9.3 percent, while imports totaled 1.57 trillion yuan, a 0.8 percent increase, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Friday. Global Times

So, as of Sunday, there is no indication that China is going to resume trade with the US unless Trump caves in and removes the tariffs. So, what Trump must do now is throw in the towel to China and then claim ‘victory’ for creating the invaluable “trade consultation mechanism”. He must snooker his backers into believing that his capitulation is actually a solid ‘win’ for Team USA.

Now The Bad News: China Has Replaced Us Already

CHINA HAS ALREADY sold huge amounts of products originally meant for US consumers to its neighbors… And the neighbors are buying big, giving China giant an 8.1% boost in export sales, surprising analysts.

“In early April, I said that Trump’s tariffs on China will strengthen trade ties between China and the rest of the world in the next few years,” said Prof Justin Hauge of Cambridge University in the UK, commenting on X. “It didn’t take a few years. It took a month.”

This is bad news for US Treasury chief Scott Bessent as he heads into negotiations later today in Switzerland, to bargain with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.

THE NUMBERS

 

Here’s what the media is not telling you:

Iran persuaded the Houthis to agree to a ceasefire with Trump in order to build momentum for this weekend’s nuclear talks in Oman. Two Iranian officials indicated that Tehran encouraged the Houthis to stop targeting U.S. assets, aligning with Iran’s interest in de-escalating tensions to advance nuclear negotiations. Here’s the story from a piece at the Times of Israel:

Iran leaned on Yemen’s Houthi rebel group to reach a truce with the US over attacks in the Red Sea in a move aimed at pushing along negotiations for an agreement over Tehran’s nuclear program, according to reports.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday evening announced an end to hostilities with the Houthis, catching Israeli officials by surprise. The announcement did not mention the ongoing Houthi missile and drone attacks on Israel, and officials for the Yemeni rebel group pledged that such strikes would continue.

Two Iranian officials, one from the foreign ministry and the other from the Revolutionary Guards, said that Iran had persuaded the Houthis to stop their attacks on US assets as part of the Omani mediation efforts, The New York Times reported.

CNN cited people familiar with the matter as saying Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff had worked with the Omanis over the past week to broker the US-Houthi ceasefire. The sources said the ceasefire was also meant to help build momentum in the Iran nuclear talks, which Witkoff has also been leading on behalf of the Trump administration. Times of Israel

What does it mean?

It means that Iran is using its influence over allies in the region to reduce the fighting (and open critical shipping lanes) hoping that it will improve the chances of a striking a deal with Trump on the nuclear issue. (Trump has said that if an agreement can’t be reached, then war will be the only option.)

Naturally, these developments terrify Israel from the point of view that Israel needs the US to assist it in any attack on Iran. But if Trump goes ahead and makes a deal with Iran (without telling Bibi, like he did with the Houthis) then Israel’s dream of defeating Iran and emerging as dominant power in the region, becomes impossible. In short, Israel needs US support in any future conflict with Iran, which means they must preemptively sabotage the nuclear negotiations. If the negotiations fail, then Trump will join Israel in air strikes on Iran. This is the scenario Netanyahu wants.

So, we should not be surprised that—less than 48 hours after Trump made the deal with the Houthis—two suspicious incidents took place that suggest Israel is (desperately) taking steps to sabotage the negotiations. First there’s this excerpt from an article at the Times of Israel:

Eight Iranian men arrested in the United Kingdom over the weekend are suspected of plotting to attack the Israeli Embassy in London, according to an unsourced report Wednesday in The Times newspaper.

“Police have refused to publicize details of the alleged plot, but it is understood the embassy was the main target,” said the report, without naming sources….

Commander Dominic Murphy, head of the Met’s Counter Terrorism Command, said earlier this week that “the investigation is still in its early stages and we are exploring various lines of enquiry to establish any potential motivation as well as to identify whether there may be any further risk to the public linked to this matter.”

British media on Tuesday reported mounting speculation that the seven Iranians and one other person arrested over the weekend had been “hours away” from carrying out an attack on a synagogue or a location linked to London’s Jewish community, though there was no confirmation of the reports.

Report: Arrested Iranian nationals were planning attack on Israeli Embassy in London, Times of Israel

Right on cue, (less than two days after Trump made the deal with the Houthis) we have an incident in which there are no verifiable facts or evidence and no public official who will corroborate what allegedly happened. Even so, the incident casts the Iranians as maniacal terrorists bent on killing Jews. That’s the intended message, right? And if they are homicidal maniacs, then they certainly can’t be trusted on a matter as serious as nuclear energy. This is exactly how Israeli propaganda is designed to work.

A second story appeared on Fox News just hours before the alleged terrorist plot in London was foiled. Here’s an excerpt:

Fox News has exclusively obtained satellite imagery revealing what an opposition group says is a previously undisclosed Iranian nuclear weapons facility — raising fresh concerns amid ongoing negotiations between Tehran and the Trump administration.

The newly identified site, located in Iran’s Semnan Province, is far from the regime’s already-known nuclear facilities. According to the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), intelligence gathered from sources inside the country points to a sprawling compound covering nearly 2,500 acres.

Code-named the “Rainbow Site” by Iranian officials, the facility has reportedly been in operation for more than a decade, masked as a chemical production company known as Diba Energy Siba.

Satellite images reveal alleged secret Iranian nuclear weapons facility, Fox News

These same unverified allegations have been published by a number of other legacy media agencies that that are helping to clear the path to war with Iran. Check out this excerpt from a piece at Newsweek:

Speaking at a press conference organized Thursday at its Washington, D.C., office, representatives of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) claimed that the Iranian Defense Ministry’s Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research was covertly pursuing nuclear weapons-related research at a location known as the “Rainbow Site” in the Ivanaki area of the north-central province of Semnan….

MeK is the leading faction of NCRI and claims to have an extensive network of members and activists within the Islamic Republic. MeK is designated as a terrorist organization by Iran due to its past involvement in violent attacks and was considered a terrorist organization by the United States as well until its delisting in 2012. Newsweek

It might have helped if the author had pointed out that the MEK or Mujahedin-e-Khalq is a dodgy cult that was on the U.S. State Department’s list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations until 2012 and that nothing they say can be trusted. But, whatever.

 
Interview with Dr. Aisha Jumaan

Question 1—On Tuesday, President Trump said that the US will stop bombing Yemen because the Houthis said they would “not be blowing up ships anymore.” Trump added that the Houthis “capitulated” and “don’t want to fight anymore”. Is Trump telling the truth; did the Houthis ‘give up’?

Aisha Jumaan— Based on the attached statement from the Sultanate of Oman Foreign ministry, it seems that the ceasefire between the US and Ansar-Allah in Sana’a was reached in a mutual way. Ansar-Allah, in an interview with DropSite by one of the Ansar-Allah leaders said, “We do not consider ourselves at war with the American people,” said Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of Ansar Allah’s political bureau and a longtime spokesperson for the Houthis. “If the U.S. stops targeting Yemen, we will cease our military operations against it.”

This was in response to comments made by President Trump and Secretary of Defense indicating that they will stop bombing Yemen if Ansar-Allah agrees to stop attacking US ships. “The choice for the Houthis is clear: Stop shooting at U.S. ships, and we will stop shooting at you,” Trump wrote in a post on TruthSocial on March 31. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in an interview with Fox News: “The minute the Houthis say, ‘We’ll stop shooting at your ships, we’ll stop shooting at your drones,’ this campaign will end. But until then, it will be unrelenting.”

Based on reports coming out from Yemen, Ansar-Allah understand that the agreement does not mean they stop attaching Israel.

A recent statement by President Trump said “We take their word for it… We hit them very hard. They had a great capacity to withstand punishment,” he said. “You could say there’s a lot of bravery there.”

A Spokesman at the Foreign Ministry said today that, following recent discussions and contacts conducted by the Sultanate of Oman with the United States and the relevant authorities in Sana’a, in the Republic of Yemen, with the aim of de-escalation, efforts have resulted in a ceasefire agreement between the two sides. In the future, neither side will target the other, including American vessels, in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, ensuring freedom of navigation and the smooth flow of international commercial shipping. The Sultanate of Oman expresses its gratitude to both parties for their constructive approach that led to this welcome outcome, and hopes that it will lead to further progress on many regional issues towards achieving justice, peace, and prosperity for all.

Question 2— Can you expand on your first answer: Does the agreement between the US and Yemen mean that US warships will be allowed to transit the Red Sea even though Trump is still providing bombs and weapons to Israel?

Aisha Jumaan—I don’t know the specifics of the agreement reached between the U.S. and Ansar-Allah. However, based on an article by Haaretz, many of the arms transfer occur by planes. Also, it seems that most sea cargo of weapons to Israel go through the Mediterranean to Haifa and Ashdod. Eliat port has been declared bankrupt due to the blockade of the Red Sea.

A dizzying pace, then a drop: How U.S. arms shipments to Israel slowed down, Haaretz. Publicly available flight tracking data shows how many U.S. arms shipments have arrived in Israel each month since the Gaza war started, revealing a sharp rise and then gradual tapering off in the pace of deliveries

Question 3— The Pentagon said on Tuesday that US Central Command forces have struck 1,000 targets in Yemen since March 15, killing roughly 200 Yemeni civilians and destroying much of the country’s critical infrastructure. How bad is the situation on the ground for ordinary people? (Is there enough food, water and medical supplies?)

Aisha Jumaan—The number of civilians killed and injured might be much higher than the reported ones. It is possible that many of the injured died due to severe injuries and lack of appropriate medical care in Yemen. The health system in Yemen is only operating at less than 50% since most of the health centers were bombed by the Saudi led coalition.

The second largest port for importing fuel and gas was destroyed by the U.S. resulting in severe fuel and gas shortages. People are waiting in lines for up to 12 hours and they still can’t get fuel for their cars. Here is what one person in Sana’a wrote.

This person says I went to stay in line to get fuel and when I left there were 45 cars before me.

The U.S. and the Israeli bombed Hodeidah port making it difficult to import food, fuel and essential goods into the country. There are about 17 million people in Yemen who need humanitarian assistance. Millions of Yemeni children suffer from malnutrition. This will affect their cognitive development and will affect them for generations to come.

Here are the concerns voiced by Dr Alwazir.

He is a prominent political figure in Yemen. He lives outside Yemen now.

Today, politics have entered the arena and has produced positive results in the ceasefire agreement between Yemen and America. However, the huge losses in infrastructure cannot be easily compensated for, and they are all very significant, whether the destruction of Ras Isa Port or the destruction of Hodeidah Port. Both ports are the lifeblood of the valiant Yemeni people and the only outlets for the economy. This is what saddens me greatly and pains me greatly, due to the serious consequences for the people and their daily lives. The enemy is trying to subjugate our economy and force us to obtain our imports of food, medicine, and other necessities, as well as oil and gas, from Mokha Port and Ma’rib Governorate. This will place our economy in the hands of others and will place our economy under their supervision and control. The destruction of the cement factories has also greatly damaged our economy, which is another important nerve center for the economy. It has also damaged three major power plants, the infrastructure at Sana’a Airport, and three Airbus aircraft. Affiliated with Yemenia Airlines…

All of this pains and grieves me, yet we will be patient and seek reward and recompense, and perhaps God will bring about something new after that…

I only mention this because of the necessity of finding import alternatives other than what the enemy is trying to bring us to. We must think deeply about the means to achieve this and apply all possible pressure to achieve it. We must also include the issue of compensation for these unjust damages in any upcoming political meetings or negotiations, and involve other parties or countries to also pressure for compensation for what was destroyed, just as the State of Oman mediated between us and America in this agreement, something I have repeatedly stated in several previous articles
and others…

I am also attaching a presentation that I gave at UW on the impact of U.S. war in Yemen

Question 4— Israel is very angry at Trump for making a deal with Yemen without consulting them. The headline in Wednesday’s Times of Israel says: Trump ditched Israel with surprise Houthi truce. That doesn’t bode well on Iran… Days after Yemeni group caused untold economic damage by hitting Ben Gurion Airport , the US president blindsided his allies; this has no doubt unsettled Jerusalem amid nuclear talks. Here’s more from the article:

 

On Thursday, President Donald Trump delivered a fiery statement on his Truth Social website. He said:

ALERT: All purchases of Iranian Oil, or Petrochemical products, must stop, NOW! Any Country or person who buys ANY AMOUNT of OIL or PETROCHEMICALS from Iran will be subject to, immediately, Secondary Sanctions. They will not be allowed to do business with the United States of America in any way, shape, or form. Thank you for your attention to this matter, PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP @realDonaldTrump

Most people who read Trump’s statement assumed that the president was planning to tighten economic sanctions on Iran. But that misses the point entirely. The real target is China because China imports 85-90% of Iran’s oil output, roughly 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd). What Trump is saying in blunt terms, is that, if China continues to purchase oil from Iran “they will not be allowed to do business with the United States of America in any way, shape, or form.” In other words, Trump is doubling down on his tariffs policy (which is 145% on Chinese goods) and imposing a complete embargo. Trump was apparently hoping that this new threat would force Beijing to the negotiation table where they would make the concessions that he seeks.

But the Chinese are not giving an inch, in fact, Beijing is more resolute than ever. China’s Foreign Minister has said repeatedly that Beijing will not bow to Trump’s bullying, nor will they negotiate until all the unilateral tariffs are removed. The western media has deliberately misled its readers on this point by making it seem like there’s “wiggle-room” on the Chinese side. But there is no wiggle room. Either Trump lifts his tariffs or there will be no talks. And if there are no talks, there will be no trade. End of story.

China believes it has the moral high-ground on this issue because it is defending the rules of international trade which cannot be changed by executive fiat or the arbitrary actions of an impulsive autocrat who thinks the system should be reconfigured to suit his interests. Chinese leaders have made it quite clear that they are not going to budge on an issue which they consider to be a matter of principle.

The Era of Bullying is Over

What that means in practical terms, is that Trump is going to be forced to cave in. And he is going to be forced to cave in sooner than many Americans realize. Activity at U.S. ports on the West Coast, has slowed significantly as of early May, and the absence of imports will become increasingly noticeable as May drags on. Take a look:

According to Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, predicted a 35% decrease in cargo arrivals for the week following April 29, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024….

For the week of May 4–10, 2025, only 17 vessels carrying 85,486 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) were scheduled to arrive, a 28.6% drop from the prior week and 10.5% lower than the previous year.

Approximately 45% of the port’s business comes from China, and many large importers, including major retailers, have paused or halted shipments from China due to tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods….

Port of Long Beach is also experiencing a steep decline in freight vessel traffic from China. For the week of May 4–10, 2025, only 12 vessels were scheduled to arrive, down from 22 the week of April 20–26… China accounted for 61% of Long Beach’s containerized imports in 2024, making it highly vulnerable to the trade disruptions….

Broader Trends:
Nationwide, ocean container bookings from China to the U.S. have fallen 20% year-over-year, with some reports indicating a 60% drop in bookings over the past three weeks since tariffs intensified.

What we are seeing now is a slow-motion trainwreck that was entirely avoidable, and which will severely damage the US economy. Many experts now think we could see a near 50% year-over-year drop in West Coast port activity accompanied by critical supply chain breakdowns similar to those that would occur during a World War. The dearth of imports will affect everything from unemployed dockworkers and truckers, to wholesalers and retailers, to Mom and Pop stores across the country. The knock-on effect will result in higher prices, mass layoffs, slower growth and volatile, chaotic markets. For the first time in living memory, Americans will experience real shortages, panic buying and empty shelves, reminders of the self-inflicted wound brought on by poor leadership.

At the same time, China is unlikely to feel much pain at all. Keep in mind, China not only has a current account surplus of $422 billion (Economist Brad Setser argues that China’s “true” surplus may be $300 billion larger), nominal GDP of $18.1 trillion, with gross domestic savings at $8 trillion in 2023, and household savings at $19-20 trillion 2024… The Chinese government also has $3.1 trillion foreign exchange reserves. ($784.3 billion of which are US Treasuries)

In contrast, the United States is $36 trillion in debt, with credit card debt soaring to $1.2 trillion, (according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York), U.S. student loan debt currently topping $1.75 trillion, and a majority of American families that claim to be unable to cover even a $500 emergency. (without procuring a loan.)

In short, China is flush with cash while the US is drowning in an ocean of red ink. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent would like you to believe that America’s lack of funds put it at an advantage in its competition with China. But that is not the case. China’s massive savings enable the government to heavily invest in projects that keep the economy expanding during financial crises, trade wars or recessions. So, while Trump continues to lay-off more government employees and slash federal expenditures, (which slows growth) China is diverting its surplus into fiscal stimulus that will keep workers employed and the economy growing. Check out this excerpt from an article at the Global Times:

China’s stepped-up fiscal policies are emerging as a pillar in its efforts to stabilize the economy, offering much-needed support to sectors under financial strain and helping the world’s second-largest economy weather persistent global uncertainty.

In 2025, the country pledged to intensify counter-cyclical adjustments, raising the deficit-to-GDP ratio to 4 percent and setting the government deficit at 5.66 trillion yuan (about 786 billion U.S. dollars), both at their highest levels in recent years.

 

The Trump tariffs are one part of a multi-pronged strategy aimed at preventing China from becoming the dominant power in Asia. The military component of this strategy is designed to work in sync with the trade war by encircling China with military bases and hostile neighbors that have enlisted in Washington’s anti-China alliance. The author of this containment plan is Elbridge Colby who currently serves as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, a senior Pentagon position that assists in the shaping of defense policy.

Colby is not a neocon, in fact, his appointment was challenged in the senate on the basis that he was insufficiently committed to attacking Iran, which he does not regard as a serious threat to US national security. Colby is laser-focused on China which he sees as an existential threat to the “rules-based international order”. Here are a few excerpts from the 2018 National Defense Strategy, a document that was heavily influenced by Colby. The excerpts underscore how threatened western elites feel by China and why (they believe) they must act to protect their interests:

China and Russia are now undermining the international order from within the system by exploiting its benefits while simultaneously undercutting its principles and ‘rules of the road.’” (2018 NDS, p. 2) https://www.dau.edu/sites/default/files/Migrated/CopDocuments/2018%20National%20Defense%20Strategy%20Summary.pdf

China is leveraging military modernization, influence operations, and predatory economics to coerce neighboring countries to reorder the Indo-Pacific region to their advantage.” (2018 NDS, p. 2)

The central challenge to U.S. prosperity and security is the reemergence of long-term, strategic competition by what the National Security Strategy classifies as revisionist powers. It is increasingly clear that China and Russia want to shape a world consistent with their authoritarian model—gaining veto authority over other nations’ economic, diplomatic, and security decisions. (2018 NDS, p. 1)

Colby’s 2018 NDS, marks the end of the War on Terror and the beginning of a “great power competition”. It represents a strategic rebalancing of US assets from locations in East Europe and the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific. It also suggests that the US will be involved in different types of conflicts than it has been for the last 20 years; conflicts that require conventional weapons, combat troops and robust industrial capability rather than covert action, guerilla warfare and boutique weapons systems. War is returning to its original form, a deadly and destructive clash between sovereign states.

As we noted earlier, Colby’s primary objective is preventing China from emerging as Asia’s regional hegemon. In order to achieve that objective, he recommends a policy of forward deterrents (more bases, troops and lethal weaponry), strong regional anti-China coalitions, and “a reformed Pentagon capable of responding quickly to developments in Asia.”

Colby does not see his policy as provocative or escalatory but simply regards it as the best way to preserve America’s place in the world order.

In practical terms, he advocates for The Strategy of Denial, (which is the name of his 2021 book) a plan that focuses on preventing China from achieving regional hegemony by creating obstacles that are too costly to overcome. The goal is to convince China that any attempt to break Washington’s encirclement (via military force) will result in unacceptable losses. This strategy of denial is the de facto operational policy of the Trump administration.

Not surprisingly, Colby sees his strategy as a way to avoid war, not start one. Here’s Colby:

“The goal is not to fight a war but to deter one by making clear to Beijing that it cannot succeed in its aggressive aims, particularly against Taiwan or other key allies.” (Foreign Affairs article, October 2021)

China’s “aggressive aims”? The United States is provoking China in its own back yard while—under the Monroe Doctrine—the US asserts control over an entire hemisphere. Here’s Colby again:

“Taiwan is the linchpin of the First Island Chain, and its fall to China would fundamentally undermine the United States’ strategic position in Asia, emboldening Beijing and weakening our alliances.” (The Strategy of Denial, p. 87)

“Defending Taiwan is not about sentimentality but about hard-nosed strategic interest. If China controls Taiwan, it will dominate the Western Pacific, threatening Japan, the Philippines, and our credibility.” (Testimony to Senate Armed Services Committee, January 2025)

So, under the Trump policy, the US intends to deny China access to an island (Taiwan) it has already agreed is legally part of China (One-China policy) and then proceeds to provoke Beijing by conducting naval drills in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea? Is that the plan?

How is this different than Biden’s policy?

Isn’t the US already using its intelligence agencies and NGOs to strengthen the independence movement in Taiwan? Isn’t the US already ‘arming Taiwan to the teeth’ in an open display of contempt for the government in Beijing? Isn’t the US already building more military bases, strengthening anti-China alliances and making itself a nuisance wherever it goes across the Indo-Pacific?

Colby’s restrained tone and deferential rhetoric make his “denial” policy sound more innocuous than it is. In truth, the strategy is just Containment 2.0; more hectoring, more harassment and more incitement the likes of which we’ve seen repeatedly for more than a decade.

Needless to say, Colby’s views on China align closely with Trump’s. Both men regard China as America’s primary strategic enemy, both men support the strengthening of anti-China alliances in the region, and both men want to enhance US military deterrents. And while Trump’s rhetoric may be more inflammatory than Colby’s, they both appear to agree that China must be treated with an iron fist.

Naturally, China is concerned that Trump’s confrontational approach will trigger an incident that will be used as a pretext for war. China would prefer to engage the US diplomatically to see if the parties can resolve their differences peacefully, but that might not be an option. After all, the administration is the exclusive purview of hardliners, neocons and warhawks. There are no ‘doves’ on Team Trump nor in the entire foreign policy establishment. That means ‘peace’ will not be on the list of choices.

Note—We asked Grok AI whether there was even one “dove” in a position of power in either the Trump administration or in the US foreign policy establishment. The only name Grok could came up with was Rand Paul, who is neither in the administration nor the foreign policy establishment. The number of advocates for peace in the government is zero.

 

Iranian MP Mohammad Siraj claims that the massive explosion at Bandar Abbas was a deliberate act of sabotage. Siraj told Rokna News Agency that “Israel was involved in the explosion. It was not accidental. Clear evidence points to Israeli involvement.”

The MP claimed the blast—which killed at least 70 people and left 1,200 more severely injured—was caused by explosives pre-planted in shipping containers, that were remotely detonated by either satellite or timer.

Siraj explained that the explosions occurred simultaneously at four different locations, a theory that seems to be supported by aerial photos that show fires breaking out at least three separate locations.

Siraj also claimed that the planting of the explosives may have involved Iranian operatives assisting Israel.

The Iranian MP was unable to provide any hard evidence to support his allegations, and his interview was later removed from the Rokna website.

Even so, the incident at Bandar Abbas is not only familiar (Re: The 2020 Beirut port explosion) but also appears to have been strategically timed to coincide with the Third Round of the US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman.

Sudden Impact 30 seconds

Also, Israeli PM Netanyahu has made it quite clear that he does not want to see the peace talks progress unless Iran is stripped of its defensive ballistic missiles and further isolated in the region. Given his support for a ‘military solution’, it is conceivable that Israel may have had a hand in the giant blast that not only killed scores of people but also obliterated a large section of Iran’s biggest container port.

The prevailing narrative in the MSM is that the port was being used to store solid fuel for Iran’s ballistic missiles, the subtle implication being that “missile fuel” is a legitimate target whether those missiles are used in self-defense or not. Here’s a clip from the Times of Israel“:

The New York Times quoted an individual with ties to Iran’s IRGC, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss security matters, who said that sodium perchlorate had exploded. The compound is a major ingredient in solid fuel for missiles.

The port had taken in a shipment of the chemical in March, the private security firm Ambrey said a day earlier. The fuel was part of a shipment from China by two vessels to Iran, first reported in January by the Financial Times.

Iran’s Defense Ministry denied the reports that the blast may have been caused by the mishandling of solid fuel used for missiles, with a spokesman telling state TV that the reports were “aligned with enemy psyops,” and that the blast-hit area did not contain any military cargo.” Times of Israel

Notice how the “missile fuel” allegations are subtly embraced while the claims of the Iranian MP are discarded as speculation. And while we have no insider knowledge that would confirm either theory, we think the media’s bias is apparent.

Naturally, Iranian officials are denying the ‘missile fuel’ claims to avoid any admission that Israeli intelligence have penetrated their ranks and provided them with access to critical military assets. On Sunday, Iranian spokesman Gen. Reza Talaeinik delivered a forceful denial that missile fuel was the source of the blast.

“No sort of imported and exporting consignment for fuel or military application was (or) is in the site of the port,” he told state television by telephone. He called foreign reports on the missile fuel baseless.

There’s been very little additional information on the explosions since the initial flurry of reports. That has not, of course, dampened public interest or lessened the amount of speculation. Without the facts, we cannot say definitively “what” or “what did not” happen, but that should not stop us from speculating on the meaning of an incident that that—in my mind—could reshape the Middle East and the world.

Let’s say, for example, that—for whatever reason—the Iranian government was using Bandar Abbas as a (temporary?) strategic reserve for its ballistic missile solid fuel (what one analyst called) “a vital artery for the regime’s regional proxy wars” as well as its own self-defense. Now those critical reserves have gone up in a poof of smoke and will be unavailable in the event of a US-Israeli attack sometime in May or June. This could, in fact, represent a catastrophic blow to the government and gravely undermine its ability to defend the country from an impending attack. In short, Bandar Abbas could be to Iran what the “exploding beepers” were to Hezbollah. We hope that is not the case, but we fear that it could be.

 

“This is one of the most important days in American history. It’s our declaration of economic independence. Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country, and you see it happening already. We will supercharge our domestic industrial base.”

President Donald Trump announces unilateral tariffs on 180 countries despite warnings of inflation, recession and supply chain disruptions, April 2, 2025

This is probably the worst economic policy I’ve ever seen…. There is no way that this policy will bring manufacturing back to the United States and “make America wealthy again”… if anything, it’ll make us much poorer. Many are saying that this tariff policy is the “end of globalization”. I don’t think so….. This is the end of America’s participation in globalization….

Molson Hart@Molson_Hart, Founder and CEO of Viahart, a consumer products company

The purpose of President Trump’s tariff policy is not what he says it is. If the goal of the tariffs was to reindustrialize the country and create more jobs in manufacturing, the announcement would have been accompanied by an industrial policy that would outline a coordinated government effort to rebuild America’s critical industries. It would have provided details on tax incentives, infrastructure investment, workforce training, government subsidies and R&D funding; all aimed at achieving Trump’s stated objectives. By now—late April—Trump would have made numerous public appearances with important banking and business leaders who would have expressed their support for this ambitious project of rebuilding the country into a manufacturing powerhouse. Trump also would have presented an overview of the many public-private agreements that had been made with wealthy capitalists who supported the idea and wanted to participate in its implementation.

But none of these things have happened, because there is no industrial policy; just as there is no expectation that the imposition of onerous duties on foreign imports will magically “bring jobs back to America”. It’s all a pipedream aimed at hoodwinking the public. So, what is the tariffs business really all about? Here’s how the WSWS answers that question:

The real purpose of Trump’s tariffs (in the words of socialist Tom Hall) is “to prepare supply chains for world war, especially against China.” (The administration) “is promoting a policy which recalls the darkest period of the 20th century under the Nazis, where trade war preceded the outbreak of World War II in September 1939.” World Socialist Web Site

We find this analysis compelling, but not particularly believable. True, Trump has failed to back his tariff edicts with any solid proposals for rebuilding America’s anemic industrial base. But that doesn’t mean he’s gearing up for a war with China. That seems like a bit of a stretch. Even so, it’s worth putting the question to Grok to see if the historical analogy is accurate.

Question—Did Hitler use the trade war to strengthen supply lines to Germany before the war?

Grok—Yes, Hitler exploited the global trade war and economic turmoil of the 1930s to strengthen Germany’s supply lines and prepare for war. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and subsequent retaliatory tariffs by other nations disrupted global trade, creating opportunities for Germany to pursue autarky (economic self-sufficiency) and secure strategic resources through bilateral agreements. Here’s how:

Hitler’s regime aimed to reduce reliance on imports by boosting domestic production, particularly in agriculture and synthetic materials (e.g., fuel, rubber). The Nazi “Four-Year Plan” (1936) prioritized rearmament and self-sufficiency to insulate Germany from trade disruptions.

Bilateral Trade Agreements: With global trade hampered, Germany negotiated barter deals with smaller nations, especially in Eastern Europe and the Balkans….

Exploiting Weakened Economies: The trade war weakened economies globally, making countries more willing to trade with Germany on favorable terms….

Control of Neighboring Economies: Germany’s economic influence over Austria and Czechoslovakia before their annexation (1938-1939) ensured access to their resources and industries, further strengthening supply lines….

While the trade war wasn’t the sole factor, it created a fragmented global economy that Hitler manipulated to bolster Germany’s war machine. By 1939, these efforts gave Germany a robust, though not complete, supply network for the early stages of World War II. (Grok)

So, a case could be made that Trump is thinking along the same lines as Hitler, trying to make the US more self-sufficient in the event of a military confrontation with China. That might explain why he is patching up relations with Putin (so he can shift his attention to China). It might also explain his sudden interest in Greenland which would provide the US with easy access to precious metals, rare earth, and oil and gas reserves in case war breaks out in the Asia-Pacific. The de facto seizure of the Panama Canal could fit within this same paradigm as it relates to the control of critical sea lanes and maritime passageways. These are all actions you would expect the government to take if they were planning a long-term conflict with a peer competitor located halfway around the world.

But we’re still not convinced that this is the opening volley in a war with China. We think it’s the Shock-and-Awe phase of an aggressive containment strategy that seeks to isolate and encircle China without actually veering into a shooting war. Even so, it should be fairly obvious by now that the Liberation Day extravaganza was merely a way to conceal Trump’s real motive, which was to formally launch a trade war on China. That’s what’s really going on behind the scattershot tariffs that have been haphazardly aimed at friend and foe alike. The real bullseye is on China, the greatest emergent threat the US has ever faced.

The embargo on Chinese goods suggests that Washington is finally making its definitive pivot to Asia. Ukraine is being handed over to the NATO allies while the US shifts its attention to the Far East. The administration is already committed to strengthening its military presence in the region, building support for an anti-China coalition, inciting incidents in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea and now, imposing a complete embargo on China without any prior notice and without the slightest provocation. The new tariffs fit seamlessly with Washington’s broader strategy of containing the one rival that is most likely to become the undisputed regional hegemon.

But whatever Trump’s intentions may have been, there is no doubt that the plan was poorly thought-out and is not having the impact he had hoped for. For example, Trump thought his gigantic tariffs would send Chinese Premier Xi Jinping racing for the phone to see what concessions he could make to placate strongman Trump. But so far, that hasn’t happened, and it doesn’t look like it will. Instead, China’s Foreign Minister has repeatedly stated that “all unilateral tariffs must be removed” before China will even talk to Trump. In short, China has left Trump with no choice but to capitulate now or watch as the US economy goes into cardiac arrest. Check out this shortlist of recession predictions by some of the bigger names in finance:

Goldman Sachs: Prediction: Raised U.S. recession odds to 45% for 2025… If reciprocal tariffs proceed, they expect a recession, albeit mild, similar to 2001’s dot-com bust….

 

In the event that the United States and Israel launch a preemptive attack on Iran, Iran is prepared to deliver a withering response that will destroy US military bases, oil production facilities, critical infrastructure, and command and control centres across the Middle East. In short, Iran has the ability to set the entire region ablaze at the flip-of-a-switch due entirely to its prodigious missile capability which surpasses that of either the United States or Israel. Check out this excerpt from an article at The National Interest titled Why Iran’s Fattah-1 Hypersonic Missile Is a Disaster for Israeli Security:

Two years ago, in June 2023, the Islamic Republic of Iran unveiled the Fattah-1, the country’s first hypersonic ballistic missile—at least according to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. Fattah means “Conqueror” in Farsi.

The missile represents a significant milestone in Iran’s military ambitions, signaling its intent to project power—and highlights the radical, evolving nature of Iran’s missile threat. In many respects, this threat is even more of a concern to Western strategists than Iran’s threshold nuclear weapons capability. After all, even if Iran developed such weapons, it could not use them without inviting its own annihilation. But if Tehran had truly developed a hypersonic ballistic missile, everyone knows which nation it would be first to target….

Unlike traditional ballistic missiles that follow predictable parabolic trajectories, the Fattah-1 features a maneuverable reentry vehicle (MaRV), enabling it to adjust its course mid-flight, both within and outside Earth’s atmosphere. This maneuverability, facilitated by a solid-fuel propulsion system and a movable secondary nozzle, is central to Fattah-1’s ability to evade most advanced missile defense systems, such as the Israeli Arrow, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome—or even American systems like the Aegis and Patriot.

In other words, the presence of Fattah-1 should give both the Americans and Israelis pause as to agitating for preventative air strikes against suspected Iranian nuclear weapons development facilities. Why Iran’s Fattah-1 Hypersonic Missile Is a Disaster for Israeli Security, National Interest

Repeat: The US and Israel’s most advanced missile defense systems, (the Israeli Arrow, David’s Sling, Iron Dome, Aegis and Patriot) are useless against Iran’s hypersonic missiles. In other words, the Fattah-1 is unstoppable.

Does Donald Trump know any of this?

No. Trump is surrounded by “yes-men” and neocons who only tell him what they want him to hear. He’s locked inside a foreign policy bubble in which all the occupants believe in the delusional myth of “American invincibility”. Trump thinks that obsolete carrier groups and B-2 Stealth bombers will win wars even when his adversaries have modernized and stocked their arsenals with state-of-the-art ballistic missile systems that can elude any of their outdated air-defense systems and put their payload directly on the target. Here’s more from the same article:

While U.S. B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bombers could likely clobber Iranian nuclear facilities from the air, the Iranians can threaten retaliation against a long list of targets in the region—exposed U.S. bases near Iranian territory, sensitive oil refineries in neighboring Saudi Arabia, U.S. aircraft carriers in the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and even distant Israel. The bounty of soft targets in the region is a profound threat against which there is little reliable defense….

Iran’s possession of missiles like the Fattah-1 means that Iranian retaliation is a significant threat to the region. Neither Washington nor Jerusalem should not downplay this real threat to their safety and economic prosperity.

And, for all the naysayers saying that Iran’s previous rounds of “massive retaliation” against Israel within the past year have fallen flat, it’s important to understand the geopolitical context. Iran appears to have held back its most important weapons in those retaliatory strikes—and there is evidence to suggest that they pulled their punches following pressure from their primary military partner, Russia.

Why Has Iran Been Holding Back?

Although the Russian hold over Iran is strong, the fact of the matter is that previous Israeli strikes against Iranian targets have avoided the country’s suspected nuclear weapons development facilities. These facilities represent the equivalent of the Holy Grail for the Iranian Islamist regime.

If either the Israelis or Americans struck these facilities and destroyed them—or even degraded them—it is unlikely that even Russia’s hold on Iran would dissuade the enraged Islamists from striking back against U.S., Israeli, and Saudi targets in ways hitherto unimagined.

Therefore, the Iranian missile threat is real. It should be avoided, if at all possible. And while negotiations with Iran are unlikely to achieve much, air strikes are a strategic mirage. The uncertainty and instability they can unleash in an already chaotic region is not worth the risk. Why Iran’s Fattah-1 Hypersonic Missile Is a Disaster for Israeli Security, National Interest

What’s interesting about this article is that the author—who appears to be a strong backer of US and Israel—is offering a word of caution based on his objective analysis of Iran’s astonishing missile capability. He is not making a moral judgement about the impending war itself, just informing the presumed perpetrators that they will face stiff resistance and could lose. That’s right, the US could lose a war with Iran. (In fact, that very scenario has been ‘gamed out’ many times in the past and the outcome was always the same.) At the very least, an outbreak of hostilities with Iran will send oil prices skyrocketing, equities markets tumbling and the global economy into a death spiral. Trump hopes to minimize the damage by escalating quickly to tactical nuclear “bunker buster” weapons that (he thinks) will bring the conflict to a swift end. But that’s not going to happen. After all, Iran has been preparing for a war with the United States for nearly two decades and they are ready to go. Any attack on their nuclear facilities will put the dominoes in motion triggering wave after wave of ballistic missile attacks on soft and hard targets in Israel and across the Middle East.