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I received many thoughtful reader comments for the essay Revolution is not a dinner party. I thought it worthwhile to share some additional perspectives on why I think Iran’s crisis is at least partly a result of its own mistakes and poor judgement. I will also attempt to speculate, hopefully intelligently, what China’s position would be in the evolving situation.
For brevity, I’ll divide the piece into three parts: Iran’s folly; Iran’s poor judgement, especially about India; and why Iran has not earned more support from China.
As events move at lightening pace, any predictive analysis run the risk of falling flatly on the face so I’ll try to stick with themes independent of the ebb and flow of hourly breaking news.
A few caveats to start with –
- No need to debate right or wrong here. No doubt that Israel’s war is a criminal violation of international law and a continuation of its vile record of criminality since the state’s inception. If you disagree, don’t read the rest
- I offer no prediction about the outcome of the conflict. My opinion is this would be a lose-lose war that neither side could claim unqualified success. If US steps into the fight directly, Iran is likely to incur an outright defeat, possibly regime change; if not, Israel would hurt more in a protracted conflict, given its far smaller size and population, and there is a risk of Israeli nuclear use
- I have no intent to blame the victim. I want to examine the deficiencies in Iranian strategic thinking, internal unity, and geopolitical judgement as I see them.
The focus of this follow up pieces are –
- Iran’s missteps in the Middle East turmoil since Oct 2023
- Internal contradictions in Iran has resulted in a weakened state
- Iran’s poor geopolitical judgement and choices, especially with regard to India (in part 2)
- China’s likely position based on its views on alliances, Iran’s strategic value, and geopolitical priorities (in part 3)
Iran’s missteps since Operation Al-Aqsa Flood
The Axis of Resistance, led by Iran, had a rare window of opportunity to inflict severe damage to Israel in the middle of 2024. Around this time last year, Israel was facing threats from Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, the Iraqi militia, Syria and Iran simultaneously – Netanyahu openly talked about a potential 7 front war.
At the time, the Israeli army was exhausted from the fighting in Gaza and Lebanon; internal Israeli frictions were running high with public disagreements between Netanyahu and his generals; the IDF morale was low from large scale mobilization; Hezbollah and Syria were still intact; global outrage of IDF’s indiscriminate slaughter of civilians was at a peak; ICC and ICJ were calling for prosecution of Israeli war crimes; Biden had real disagreements with Netanyahu and Israeli policies despite the continued military support; the Axis of Resistance enjoyed a relatively strong military position, compared with now, to defeat Israel on the battlefield.
Critically, it was also riding on a wave of global support before Gaza fatigue settled in and the world moved on to the next news cycle.
However, Iran completely missed the window of opportunity to rally the Axis of Resistance and execute a crushing defeat on Israel. Instead, it dragged its feet in face of repeated Israeli provocations and attacks, sometimes waiting months before retaliating.
Meanwhile, Israel regrouped and executed shocking reversals – targeted killing of numerous Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, beeper attack on Hezbollah, relentless bombing of Lebanon, repeated attacks on Iran homeland and its diplomatic outposts, overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria (credit to Turkey), and possibly the assassination of the hardline Iranian President Raisi. Israel did all above with only half-hearted Iranian retaliations.
The much touted “hundreds of thousands” rockets and missiles the Hezbollah supposedly possessed didn’t rain down on Israel. Apart from the brave and valorous Houthis, the Axis of Resistance failed to do much at all to confront Israel and deter the Palestine genocide.
In fact, there were barely any actions besides some empty rhetorics from Tehran to support the Palestinians. Even the cynical back-stabbing Turkish Sultan Erdoğan had more fiery rhetorics for the Jews on the genocide (and of course, in the true self-serving Erdogan fashion, without lifting a finger to do anything substantial, like cutting off Israel’s oil supplies).
As a result, Isreal neutralized much of the Axis of Resistance while Iran largely stood by while its allies were decimated. As time goes on and the Jews work their dark magic in the west, even protests against the genocide were repressed and died down.
In front of the world, Iran returned a few rounds of timid “proportional” retaliatory attacks and even gave advanced warnings to avoid any “misunderstanding” and “civilian casualties”.
After Raisi’s death, Iran elected a “liberal”, “moderate” president (basically representing the west-leaning faction) who sounded tougher than his acts.
Iran was clearly trying to leave some space to get back into the good grace of the US. It bent backwards to placate the US to restart nuclear negotiations for loosening the sanctions noose.
Iran took up Trump’s dishonest offer of a nuclear settlement talk, seemingly having forgot it was the same Trump who ordered the assassination of General Soleimani and who is totally in the pocket of the Jews. Iran was naively hoping it could get away with some dial back on nuclear enrichment, rather than a full stop, in exchange for sanctions relief.
As I laid out in the earlier essay, unlike North Korea, in essence Iran has been using its nuclear program as a leverage to extract concessions on sanctions rather than a national goal for survival.
It has hovered around the nuclear threshold without clearing it. Instead of outsmarting the US, it foolishly stepped into the trap Trump laid with the bad-faith fake negotiations and suffered the blow of Israel’s sneak attacks.
Regardless how much people despise Israeli and US treachery, Iran made itself vulnerable with its bluffing and strategic naivety.
Internal frictions and a weak state
The repeated success of Mossad operations inside Iran must force even the most sympathetic observers face the reality that the Iranian society is fragmented, fully infiltrated by Jewish and western agents, and lacks any cohesion and national unity.
Iran’s political system is riddled with dualities: secular presidency and religious theology, Revolutionary Guards and national army, Azerbaijanian Muslim clergy and Persian majority, religious fundamentalists and western-leaning “liberals”.
These dualities are not reconcilable and structurally institutionalize internal divisions.
The ruling elite in Iran is rent seeking and fight ruthless internal battles for the spoils. The corruption has fostered deep-rooted popular resentment and grass root dissatisfaction.
Four oligarchic families have ruled Iran since the 1979 revolution. The Khamenei family, the Soleimani family, the Rafsanjani family, and the Khomeini family have monopolized energy, construction, infrastructure, telcom, pharmaceutical, and banking industries for decades. The ruling Khamenei family is rumored to be worth some $300 billion.
The palace intrigues, corruption, and infighting have severely weakened state power.
The net result is a deeply divided society prone to Jewish and western infiltration and their well-practiced playbook of “divide and rule”. No society without internal unity can withstand external attacks from powerful and ruthless enemies. In a crisis, the fault lines are fracturing and may well be irreparable.
In stark contrast, Israel has proven to be a far more cohesive and ruthless foe. The population has rallied around the genocide flag with many Jews advocating even harsher repressions of the Palestinians. There is little dissent on ethnic cleansing, bombing hospitals, or starving war refugees.
The Israelis may complain about being drafted from their regular jobs but few have grounds to be upset with IDF senior officers’ corruption.
In a societal contest of grit and unity, Iran can hardly match Israel.
(to be continued)
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Israel is also fractured. Without a rescue by Trump, Netanyahu is finished.
Don’t cry over spilled milk. Do you understand, Hua Bin? What’s the point today?
“Iran completely missed the window of opportunity to rally the Axis of Resistance and execute a crushing defeat on Israel. Instead, it dragged its feet in face of repeated Israeli provocations and attacks, sometimes waiting months before retaliating”.
Tell me, have Russia and China done anything serious in the face of the thousands of provocations from the West right under their noses? Today, will Russia and China seize the moment to join forces with Iran (supposedly an ally) to strike a blow against the West? Or will we have to wait for more red lines and patience?
One does get the impression that Russia and China have been pinning Iran’s arms behind it while the Zionists clobbered its allies, bombed its embassy, and they are likely pinning Iran’s arms even now, threatening to withhold support if they try to win.
China is still officially Communist, and Russia was almost entirely owned by Jews in the 1990s, the Soviet Union sold off its assets to Jews for pennies on the dollar. After all, the Jews were behind Communism and the viability of the Soviet state always depended on the support of Jews.
Right you are. Maybe some want mutually assured destruction more than others?
But, patience is a virtue most of the time, and it is very possible we’re only in the middle rounds. If it’s for all the marbles, and it appears to be getting real, “everything changes in love and war”, is sound wisdom. Many experts have devoted their lives to this, I sure hope that’s not a bad thing. Or not, could be destiny’s child.
Iran isn’t asking for help. They aren’t damsels in distress who need others to come fight their battles for them (unlike Israel).
“Today, will Russia and China seize the moment to join forces with Iran (supposedly an ally) to strike a blow against the West?”
Most likely they won’t. They are the proverbial ostrich, with their head in the sand. The very same mistake Hua Bin (correctly) accuses Iran of making – letting its alliances, which it spent decades building, be first decimated by the ZioNazis – each of Russia and China habitually makes, and look to be making now. They don’t defend their “allies” b/c they have none – while Trump is accused of being a “deal” guy, in fact Russia and China relations are completely transactional (which is laudable in many cases, but not with your head in the sand).
It’s much like the game of “musical chairs”. Pretty soon you find you are all alone, b/c you have not helped anyone else as the enemy smashed all your “allies”, one after the other, easily enough b/c nobody joined together to fight the common tyrant. Russia in just the last few decades has had Georgia (which is now back, somewhat), Yugoslavia, Ukraine, Syria, etc., etc. torn from it, with nary a whimper (and then only when the enemy was poised to place its troops and missiles on Russia’s border)
In Iran’s case, the writing was on the wall long ago. After orchestrating 9/11 and using their hasbara loyalists, who have infiltrated and dominate virtually all Western institutions, to blame the ZioNazis victims (Arab Muslims) for their heinous crime, the ZioNazis invaded the Pentagon and gave their puppet Bush Jr. marching orders to destroy “seven countries in five years”. Iran was the last of the seven (though the other six did not go in the planned order, Iran had to be last). The other six have been done with, the last to fall being Syria.
So for Iran this truly is an existential war, against the Axis of Absolute Evil ZioNazis, led by the Global Jewish ZioNazi Mafia with the US cattle as their unashamed muscle, much like Master-Blaster from Mad Max (except Blaster did get some benefit from the arrangement, while the US is a puerile slave, aside from the “leaders” who get rewarded handsomely for their treachery and treason).
On the other hand one could see this moment coming from way back in …. 2007, at least. So Hua is right, Iran should have been better prepared and should have fought far, far harder when the Axis of Resistance was being decimated (granted they did not want a fight with the Great Satan, which is actually the Great Satan’s unpaid servant), but they were going to get that fight no matter what – Wesley Clark told us all that in 2007, if it wasn’t obvious already and otherwise since.
Question is, will China and Russia make the same utterly foolish and self-destructive misstep? Better to fight the common enemy at the neighbor’s door, then wait for him to come to yours. Even if Iran isn’t a perfect imperial subject, and never will be. Defeat the ZioNazi Empire in Iran, or wait for it to attack you, China. And Russia: you are already experiencing the whip, you would have to be a complete fool not to do your utmost to pay back your tormentors.
This is a very sophisticated and original analysis of a corrupt society. No doubt that it is probably similar to many other Muslim countries. However, that is no excuse for a Pearl Harbor-style attack on a nation that is no legitimate threat to Israel. As far as the U.S. it is Iraq 2.0 coming up. Just another day at the office for the world bully about to destroy yet another country and solidify its stranglehold in the region.
The endless invective by the propaganda machine in the U.S. is based on what? That in 1979 the Iranians threw out the puppet Shah who had been terrorizing the country since the CIA-led-coup in 1953. Are there 10 people in America that know this salient fact? All this insane hatred is about the fact that the Iranians do not want to be another slave state of America. Can you blame them?
Complain all you want about Iran’s flawed theocracy BUT the main strategic issue here is : can Russia and China afford yet another disaster in the Middle East? Say what you will about the evil American imperialism. In 1823 they established the Monroe Doctrine. And in 200 years no country has dared compete with them in the Western Hemisphere. Where is the Russian or Chinese version of the Monroe Doctrine? Nowhere to be seen.
And if Russia and China cannot or will not help a fellow BRICS NEIGHBOR being viciously and gratuitously attacked, then what good are they or BRICS? With friends like these, Iran hardly needs enemies. Ten years from now Russia and China will look back at their absolute cowardice in not forging a WINNABLE alliance against the U.S. What happened to those war games with Iran we heard about earlier in the year? All juvenile nonsense.
If Russia and China put SOLDIERS in Iran no way in hell does Israel and the U.S. win. Leaving Iran to fight alone is one of the stupidest errors of the century. Putin and XI can still act but probably will not. Focus on that, Hua-Bin. Admit it- they are pathetic losers! It’s not enough to have a modern military and cutting edge technology. Their has to be the WILL to use them. Clearly Russia and China lack this and will end up sucking up the U.S. like everyone else.
Countries are divided and you always have a fifth column.
Maybe Iran needed a “Pearl Harbor” event, is not like the Axis of Evil were not going to attack Iran eventually.
There’s a reason why the US always provoke or fabricate false-flag events to paint themselves as the victims.
The last country to attack Iran in a big way was Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1980. No quick kill but a long conflict that debilitated both countries.
More to your point, Washington has already split China with Taiwan . If China won’t help Iran ( they will not in any meaningful way) will China at least kick Washington off its territory while it’s tied down fighting Iran.
If Israel gets backed into a corner and is losing badly (I’m not saying this will happen) the danger lies in the fact they are a nuke armed nation, and I believe would use them in this instance. As much as I dislike Israel it might be better for all concerned if Israel is not defeated. Personally, I believe Israel should never have been created. They made the desert bloom alright, with bombs and corpses.
Israel will use nukes only if it is defeated AND invaded.
If its attack on Iran is defeated, and it slowly atrophies due to lack of US support, they won’t use nukes. The key is whether the US continues to support them or not.
Hua Bin’s diatribe on Iran is so hindsight is 20/20, and I am quite surprised with this as most of his other writings speak of evidence for his arguments rather than blaming the victim.
I guess he will sit back and toss in the popcorn into his maw.
There is always somebody too clever by half.
Fuck You, Hua.
Much of what Bin wrote about Iran applies to China too. Let’s see how “cohesive” China is in cas of a war with the West.
There is fog of war now. Also no doubt the Zionists have extraordinary control of what info reaches our attention, so I would take what appears on news feeds with a large fistful of salt.
I believe things will get clearer in time. May take months tho.
Israel won the first inning, but the ballgame is far from over. The Middle East is a hornet’s nest, and US soldiers on the ground in IRAN could get ugly REAL FAST.
The fog of war is incredible right now. The Iron Dome sucks, Iran’s generals are all dead, Iran’s society is fractured and infiltrated with Mossad spies, Iran is getting secret help from Russia and China, hypersonics will destroy Tel Aviv as well as Haifa nuclear sites, Israel will nuke Iran anyway, oil will be $150/barrel with $15 gasoline in the US, etc, etc.
One thing you can be sure of. NOTHING ABOVE IS LIKELY TRUE. All we get is TV and bogus internet stuff. Now if you’re doing a podcast directly from Tehran, I might listen a little. Otherwise, forget it.
Even if everything you say is true, you are leaving out the most important point. You are next.
That assumes that the USA:
1. Deems itself strong enough militarily and economically to take on China. After the laughable Tariff War, I doubt that.
2. Deems itself able to defeat Iran. Already Trump is giving Iran “yet another chance”. Obviously he is just bluffing again.
3. Is able to defeat Iran in practical terms. If the US military is not able to defeat the tiny sandal wearing military of the Houthis, I highly doubt that they will be able to defeat Iran.
4. Assumes that Russia and China will not come to Iran’s aid, should Iran request it.
5. The USA regime will itself survive.
Ouch, the truth hurts.