A range of strategic factors help explain why America is destined to lose a trade war with China, why a western coalition can’t overcome Russia in Ukraine and why external pressure probably can’t alter Israel’s atrocities unless the U.S. pulls the plug. Let’s look at those factors in more detail. Sovereignty will always trump collective... Read More

More people, fewer Germans, less agency and no growth is the toxic cocktail that J D Vance has laid bare. U.S. Vice President JD Vance alleges that Europe faces civilisational suicide, pointing at Germany in particular. I am an advocate of economic migration, but not if that means uncontrolled population growth at a time of... Read More

Starmer’s policy pivot on trade and investment shows a level of clarity and purpose not seen in his faltering first six months on foreign policy Britain and Russia find themselves in a fascinating position of taking a moderate line on Trump’s Tariff war while at the same time building close economic ties with China. I... Read More

The best way to prevent future conflict with Russia is to exact a price, remove blank cheques, close all doors while leaving them open to a possible reconciliation at some future point in the past. Europe needs to brace itself for the possibility of a general war with Russia by 2030 at the latest. As... Read More

President Trump has advanced a new policy proposition that engagement and dialogue is vital if we are to bring an end to the fighting. When western pundits resist efforts to bring an end to fighting in Ukraine, they never provide an alternative vision of what they would do differently. A respected associate of mine asked... Read More

President Trump, not held back by dissenters in his own party, appears strongly placed to agree a deal with President Putin. Media coverage of America’s recent talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia focussed almost exclusively on the prospects for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Russia and the U.S. probably want different outcomes from the talks. But... Read More