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On Monday President Donald Trump telephoned President Vladimir Putin and they talked for two hours before Trump put lunch in his mouth and Putin his dinner.
On the White House schedule, there was no advance notice of the call and no record afterwards. The White House log is blank for Trump’s entire morning while the press were told he was at lunch between 11:30 and 12:30.
Putin went public first, making a statement to the press which the Kremlin posted at 19:55 Moscow time; it was then 12:55 in Washington. Click to read.
Trump and his staff read the transcript and then composed Trump’s statement in a tweet posted at 13:33 Washington time, 20:33 Moscow time. Click to read.
If Secretary of State Marco Rubio and General Keith Kellogg, the president’s negotiator with the Ukraine and FUGUP (France, United Kingdom, Germany, Ukraine, Poland), were consulted during Trump’s prepping, sat in on the call with the President, or were informed immediately after the call, they have remained silent.
The day before, May 18, Rubio announced that the Istanbul-II meeting had produced agreement “to exchange paper on ideas to get to a ceasefire. If those papers have ideas on them that are realistic and rational, then I think we know we’ve made progress. If those papers, on the other hand, have requirements in them that we know are unrealistic, then we’ll have a different assessment.” Rubio was hinting that the Russian formula in Istanbul, negotiations-then-ceasefire, has been accepted by the US. What the US would do after its “assessment”, Rubio didn’t say – neither walk-away nor threat of new sanctions.
Vice President JD Vance wasn’t present at the call because he was flying home from Rome where he attended Pope Leo XIV’s inaugural mass. “We’re more than open to walking away,” Vance told reporters in his aeroplane. “The United States is not going to spin its wheels here. We want to see outcomes.” Vance prompted Trump to mention the Pope as a mediator for a new round of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, first to Putin and then in public.
Kellogg is refusing to go along. He statement after Trump’s call. “The US President and the European partners have agreed on the next steps. They agreed to closely coordinate the negotiation process and to seek another technical meeting. All sides reaffirmed their willingness to closely accompany Ukraine on the path to a ceasefire. The European participants announced that they would increase pressure on the Russian side through sanctions.”
This signalled acceptance with Trump of the Russian formula, negotiations-then-ceasefire, and time to continue negotiating at the “technical” level. The sanction threat was added. But this statement was no longer FUGUP. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was omitted; so too Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The Italian, the Finn and the European Commission President were substituted. They make FUGIFEC.
Late in the Paris evening, French President Emmanuel Macron attempted to bring Starmer back, restore the ceasefire-first formula, and tell Trump FUGOFF. “I spoke tonight with @POTUS @Keir_Starmer @Bundeskanzler and @GiorgiaMeloni after our talks in Kyiv and Tirana. Tomorrow, President Putin must show he wants peace by accepting the 30-day unconditional ceasefire proposed by President Trump and backed by Ukraine and Europe.”
For the time being, Putin’s and Trump’s statements have put Rubio, Kellogg and the Europeans offside. Decoding the two president’s statements shows how and why.
PRESIDENT PUTIN’S STATEMENT
Source: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76953
President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Good evening.
Our colleagues asked me to briefly comment on the outcome of my telephone conversation with the President of the United States.This conversation has effectively taken place and lasted more than two hours. I would like to emphasise that it was both substantive and quite candid. Overall,[1] I believe it was a very productive exchange.
First and foremost[2], I expressed my gratitude to the President of the United States for the support provided by the United States in facilitating the resumption of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine aimed at potentially reaching a peace agreement and resuming the talks which, as we know, were thwarted by the Ukrainian side in 2022[3].
The President of the United States shared his position[4] on the cessation of hostilities and the prospects for a ceasefire. For my part, I noted that Russia also supports a peaceful settlement of the Ukraine crisis as well. What we need now is to identify the most effective[5] ways towards achieving peace.
We agreed with the President of the United States that Russia would propose and is ready to engage with the Ukrainian side on drafting a memorandum[6] regarding a potential future peace agreement. This would include outlining a range of provisions, such as the principles for settlement, the timeframe for a possible peace deal, and other matters, including a potential temporary ceasefire, should the necessary agreements[7] be reached.
Contacts among participants of the Istanbul meeting and talks have resumed, which gives reason to believe that we are on the right track overall[8].
I would like to reiterate that the conversation was highly constructive, and I assess it positively. The key issue, of course, is now for the Russian side and the Ukrainian side to show their firm commitment to peace and to forge a compromise that would be acceptable to all parties.
Notably, Russia’s position is clear. Eliminating the root causes[9] of this crisis is what matters most to us.
Should any clarifications be necessary, Press Secretary [Dmitry] Peskov and my aide, Mr Ushakov[10], will provide further details on today’s telephone talks with President Trump.
KEYS TO DECODE
1. This is a qualifier, meaning there are serious differences on the details — Putin asked Trump to pause, halt or cease all arms deliveries to the Ukraine, including US arms shipped through Israel, Germany, and Poland. This is a bullet Trump hasn’t bitten, yet.
2. Putin has made a firm decision to give Trump the “peace deal” he has asked for and wishes to announce at a summit meeting. In their call Putin was mollifying Trump’s disappointment at the failure of their plan to meet when Trump was in the Middle East. A Russian source comments: “Whatever concessions have to be made will be made only by Putin and only to Trump. The Europeans are trying to hog the headlines and turn their defeat into some sort of victory – Trump won’t let them have it and Putin won’t either.”
3. Putin does not publicly admit the mistakes he made with Roman Abramovich and Vladimir Medinsky in March 2022 at Istanbul-I. They have now been corrected at the consensus decision-making session with the military and intelligence chiefs (May 14 Kremlin session) and then on May 16 in Istanbul with Admiral Igor Kostyukov of the GRU seated on Medinsky’s right with General Alexander Fomin, Deputy Minister of Defence. For more details, click to listen.
Source: https://ria.ru/20250516/peregovory-2017151081.html
At top left, 2nd from left, Fomin, then Kostyukov (obscured) and then Medinsky.
4. Soft qualifier. This means Putin did not agree with several of Trump’s points relating to intelligence sharing, arms deliveries, Ukrainian elections.
5. Future tense. Putin suggested to Trump that he stop Kellogg and FUGUP encouraging Zelensky. Putin made an especially negative remark about the role played by Prime Minister Starmer.
6. This is a Russian lesson in escalation control. By putting the memorandum of understanding in Russian hands to initiate, Putin returns to the key parts of the December 17, 2021, draft treaty which President Joseph Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken summarily dismissed. Placing agreement on these terms first, before a temporary ceasefire, and making that ceasefire conditional on ceaseforce (halt to battlefield intelligence sharing and arms re-supply), Putin has invited Trump to choose between the US and FUGUP; between Zelensky and an elected successor; and between his personal negotiator advisors, Steven Witkoff and General Kellogg.
7. Reiteration of the formula, negotiations first, then ceasefire.
8. Qualifier repeated – see Key 1.
9. This phrase refers to the European security architecture and mutual security pact of December 2021, as well as to the two declared objectives of the Special Military Operation — demilitarization and denazification.
10. Following Putin’s statement, Ushakov added: “other details of the telephone conversation. Among other things, Putin and Trump touched upon the exchange of prisoners of citizens of the two countries: the format of ‘nine nine’ is being worked out. The leaders also discussed their possible meeting and agreed that it should be productive, so the teams of the presidents will work out the content of the summit between Russia and the United States.”
PRESIDENT TRUMP’S STATEMENT
Tweet source : https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114535693441367601
Trump followed in a stumbling speech in the Rose Garden in which, referring to the morning telephone call, he said “they [Putin] like Melania better.”
Just completed my two hour call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. I believe it went very well. Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire[1] and, more importantly, an END to the War. The conditions for that will be negotiated between the two parties, as it can only be, because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of.[2] The tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent. If it wasn’t, I would say so now, rather than later. Russia wants to do largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic “bloodbath” is over, and I agree[3]. There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED. Likewise, Ukraine can be a great beneficiary on Trade, in the process of rebuilding its Country.
Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will begin immediately. I have so informed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, President Emmanuel Macron, of France, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, of Italy, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, of Germany, and President Alexander Stubb, of Finland, during a call with me,[4] immediately after the call with President Putin. The Vatican, as represented by the Pope[5] has stated that it would be very interested in hosting the negotiations. Let the process begin![6]
KEYS TO DECODE
1. Trump accepts that negotiations should come before ceasefire.
2. This amounts to rejection of Kellogg’s 22-point term paper first decided with Zelensky and FUGUP in London on April 23 and repeated by Macron following after Trump’s statement; as well as rejection of Witkoff’s term paper discussed at the Kremlin on April 25.
Source: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76797
From left to right: Witkoff’s interpreter, Witkoff, Putin, Ushakov, Russian interpreter, Kirill Dmitriev. For analysis of the term sheets, read this.
3. Agreement with the business deal-making which Witkoff has been discussing with Kirill Dmitriev. For the deal beneficiaries on both sides, read this.
4. This list includes two Germans, both Russia haters — Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Ursula von der Leyen, former German defense minister and supporter of the German rearmament plan to continue the war with Russia into the future. The British Prime Minister has been dropped by Trump, and also Polish Prime Minister Tusk. Included for the first time in this context are the Italian and Finnish representatives with whom Trump has demonstrated personal rapport. Research by Manos Tsafalias indicates that there is a substantial money interest in Finland for Trump’s associate, Elon Musk.
5. Prompt from the Catholic convert, Vice President Vance.
Vance and Rubio meeting with Pope Leo XIV on May 18. They invited the Pope to make an official visit to Washington. The last papal visit to the White House was in September 2015 on the invitation of President Obama and Vice President Biden.
6. Trump has covered his disappointment at failing to hold a summit meeting with Putin in Istanbul on the afternoon of May 16 by dismissing the negotiations which occurred without him. For details of Trump’s abortive summit plan, read this.
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This is Kellogg going along. There is no disagreement between Trump, Kellogg, Witkoff, Vance, Rubio, or anyone else in the Trump admin. They all make it clear that they want Russia to surrender.
You’re misreading it. Trump accepts no such thing or else he wouldn’t be saying that these negotiations will begin “immediately” (obviously they will not). Nothing has changed on Trump’s end. He wants Russia to surrender, as he and his proxies like Kellogg and Witkoff have been saying repeatedly for months. He mentions “trade” and “massive wealth” because he is offering to turn Russia into an American economic colony and enrich “the oligarchs.” The hope is that these “oligarchs” will pressure the government into surrendering so that they can begin profitable business of facilitating American looting of the country.
Zelensky is a hindrance to progress and is an illegitimate dictator. The 2014 coup destroyed the balancing act in Ukraine and the so-called leaders since then pushed by Western propaganda have not been legitimate. The US, via Nuland, even picked the new supposed leader at the time. He should be considered irrelevant. The Russians have stated the Ukraine needs to be “de-nazified” which means he and his Azov bully-boys will have to go, something they certainly won’t want to cooperate with. The Russians are too smart to get lured into the trap of a ceasefire without first getting the framework of an accepted settlement. The Korean war ended with a ceasefire but with no peace agreement and so more than seventy years later there’s still two hostile states threatening each other with foreign troops stationed in one of them. The Western European states would like to have a Ukrainian state hostile to Russia and always acting as a provocateur, always keeping tensions going. The Russians know this.
The above neatly sums up current realities.
Trump favors the Vance/Witkoff stance. Negotiations will take place without a ceasefire. Europe/Ukraine now see that Kellogg has been relegated to the outer circle. While he has some access, he has no influence. Europe’s hope of a pause to rearm Führer Zelensky is gone.
The top two key stumbling blocks remain the same:
-1- Kiev must permanently “de jure” cede territory to Russia to form a new border. Zelensky insists that his office does not have this power. This creates a messy problem where the Ukrainian legislature needs to act before a ceasefire can take place.
-2- Angela “Welcome Rape-ugees” Merkel used the Minsk agreements to arm up Kiev. Thus, there is legitimate doubt about Ukrainian sincerity. To prevent fighting from restarting some years down the line, any deal must include verifiable and enforceable limits on Ukrainian offensive potential. This includes — but is not limited to — formal military neutrality, no foreign troops/bases, and of course No NATO Ever.
Both sides are asking for more than they can get in terms of territory. Realistically the new border will largely resemble the contact line when a deal is reached. In theory, this should motivate Kiev to reach terms sooner rather than later. The line is moving west not east. Unfortunately, Führer Zelensky is a puppet for Europe (e.g. Germany, France, UK). Will they let him negotiate in good faith?
Trump still has to move his budget through Congress. Margins are very narrow in both the House and Senate. Do not expect to see any big moves from the U.S. side for the next month.
The good news is that the money pump is being turned off. There is no large line item for Kiev aggression in the budget. If Europe insists on keeping Führer Zelensky’s troops in the field, they will have to foot the bill. Germany, France, and the UK all have domestic issues. How long can they afford a foreign Forever War?
PEACE 😇
Neither really said a thing which is not a good sign.
What actually happened is
1) VVP offered an (?) offramp before the summer offensive – once it´s going there
will be no cozying.
2) The Zezi saw that as an opportunity for prancing around; his taking
Gen. Cornflake along means there will be no negotiations.
3) VVP relieved Lavrov from going (which I understand had been the plan) –
of course he (((sugar)))coated the bomb; I´m not trained in the finesses of high
diplomacy but read that as the equivalent of me sending Pushilin to lead the delegation,
with explicit orders to pee on the Zezi (and by extension the equally peacocky
Orange One).
If the Orange One had the slightest interest in “ending the bloodshed” he could simply
stop murdering Russians (fat chance); the US started the war, Europe is ruined,
the Ukraine is depopulated, all that is missing is Russia´s surrender;
in Orange Maff this means an offer to VVP´s Lyubawitscher to split the loot 50:50.
1) It is difficult to really know what, if anything, Trump favors. The guy tends to be all over the place. I think it is clear however that he views the situation as untenable, long-term, and has stated it would have been better if we had never gotten involved. But as far as a ‘solution’?
Trump recently tweeted (or whatever they call it on Truth Social) that if Putin doesn’t get it going soon, he’s going to ‘massively’ sanction Russia. Does anyone think that is going to influence Putin, or do anything helpful toward bringing an end to the fighting?
2) Are we re-living Paris all over again? Remember, those ‘negotiations’ began under Johnson, in 1968. Fighting lasted up until the US essentially gave up, in 1973.
Having Zelensky as a negotiating partner is not a winner in the daily double, for sure. Unless Trump is both willing and able to simply ‘pull the plug’ on Ukraine military support, this thing could go on for who knows how much longer? At least until there are no more Ukrainians for the Russians to kill, whenever that might be.
Right now the situational rhetoric changes from day to day, hour to hour. Who can predict? But so far I see nothing to indicate it’s going to end quickly. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.
I think both sides have reasons to want to keep fighting, but it would be nicer if it stops.
These kinds of things have happened before. Remember that time the Soviets helped the North Vietnamese to shoot down US strategic bombers:
Video Link
It is not particularly difficult if you keep your eye on the ball.
Remember, Trump is working with very narrow margins in Congress. To avoid agonizing some establishment types he has to occasionally say things to keep them on side.
Also, the U.S. Fake Stream Media is very Globalist. They maliciously twist whatever Trump says to make it most favourable to Kiev and least favourable to Russia. If that spin, which you are quoting, is accurate — Why is there going to be a friendly Trump/Putin meeting in the near future.
Look at results, not the nebulous cloud of verbiage and media disinformation.
• Negotiations are taking place without a ceasefire, despite Europe/Ukraine objections
• Trump is *not* participating in the latest round of EU sanctions
• There is no money in the U.S. budget for Kiev aggression
These are clearly wins for the Vance/Witkoff strategy.
You make a good point. Trump is more a “broker” rather than a principal. This is Europe’s Folly: (1)
Framing the talks as an effort to END the war (not merely to arrange a ceasefire) is key. For obvious reasons, Russia will not let the forces of Kiev aggression resupply.
Of course, getting Ukraine to the table is only step one. If Europe (e.g. Germany, France, UK) prevents Kiev from negotiating in good faith, this will go nowhere.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-should-never-have-gotten-entangled-ukraine-death-trap-trump
This “Vance/Witkoff stance” is identical to the so-called “Kellogg stance.” Freeze the conflict on current lines, accelerate “sovereign” Ukraine’s accession to western institutions (either officially or unofficially), and continue remilitarizing the Ukraine. There is literally no difference between them at all.
Having the new American Pope mediate peace talks is just more Clown World.
Make it stop!
I appreciate Helmer’s writing but I think he is trapped by the limitations of his sources. On the Russian side, military people who understand what is going on will likely not give him the straight story for security reasons. On the Western side most analysts of all stripes are confused idiots.
He should tell us all about Russian, Ukrainian and Israeli oligarchs as well as the Jewish power aspects of this conflict. It would be helpful to have a better idea of who the non-Jewish (secular) oligarch winners and losers are from the SMO. These are topics he can probably cover better than most authors. Consider it a request.
Let me FTFY:
The “Vance/Witkoff stance” is 180° opposite “Kellogg stance”:
• Base outcomes on current lines, which are moving west. The longer Europe/Ukraine fights the worse the final result.
• Prevent “sovereign” Ukraine’s accession to western military institutions. The purely economic EU is still on the table, however their Common Agricultural Policy [CAP] makes accession unaffordable.
• Continue demilitarizing the Ukraine. This includes — but is not limited to — formal military neutrality, no foreign troops/bases, and of course No NATO Ever.
There is literally complete difference between the two.
PEACE 😇